Prospective scenarios for regional development in Bolivar, Colombia: Great Vision study Under the premise on how public policy can contribute to decision-making on the consolidation of the urban-regional system, physical-productive integration, connectivity and social mobility in the Department of Bolivar, Colombia, from its planning with a horizon of 50 years, the study determines strategic recommendations necessary for its competitive positioning before more developed regions in the country. The study intends to visualize territorial planning based on integrating elements such as the culture, geographic characteristics, economic vocation and infrastructure of the Bolivarian territory, based on its great wealth, but a great affectation for the violence of the Colombian conflict, and the forget about centralized development. Based on an integral vision of the department, a long-term perspective means an opportunistic vision supported on transversal and inclusive elements of the territory, leading the discussion towards the feasible application of adjusted prospective planning methodology, and even continental scales of vision in which the region registers but whose processes are very questionable. This made possible the study of Great Vision Scenarios for Regional Development , in order to glimpse a long-term perspective of studies, plans, and existing projects and to highlight those required for their future development.
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Prospective scenarios for regional development in Bolivar, Colombia: Great Vision study Under the premise on how public policy can contribute to decision-making on the consolidation of the urban-regional system, physical-productive integration, connectivity and social mobility in the Department of Bolivar, Colombia, from its planning with a horizon of 50 years, the study determines strategic recommendations necessary for its competitive positioning before more developed regions in the country.
The study intends to visualize territorial planning based on integrating elements such as the culture, geographic characteristics, economic vocation and infrastructure of the Bolivarian territory, based on its great wealth, but a great affectation for the violence of the Colombian conflict, and the forget about centralized development.
Based on an integral vision of the department, a long-term perspective means an opportunistic vision supported on transversal and inclusive elements of the territory, leading the discussion towards the feasible application of adjusted prospective planning methodology, and even continental scales of vision in which the region registers but whose processes are very questionable.
This made possible the study of Great Vision Scenarios for Regional Development , in order to glimpse a long-term perspective of studies, plans, and existing projects and to highlight those required for their future development. The regional development policy in Colombia is based on three supports: first, a base of strategies, objectives and fundamental projects established in the Regional Development Plan.
For its management and financing, articulated with the previous one, the second and third support present two tools of national consensus: the National Council of Economic and Social Planning CONPES , in terms of public policy for development, and the National Revenues System SNR , in terms of finance resources and their distribution among country regions.
National-regional policy is articulated with the agreement with the National Department of Planning and the Planning Secretary of each Colombian region to develop environmental, poverty, infrastructure in investment projects. Under this scheme, access to the financing of projects in Colombia was possible through the Revenues Law of , which regulates the allocation of resources and financing mechanisms available for territorial development , are approved in the terms of the municipal-regional-national organization OCAD, Caribbean Zone 1.
Main goals of research was a to define the potential of the Bolivarian territory in terms of economic vocation, the exceptional universal values of cultural heritage and infrastructure networks for development; b to interpret and to redirect the competitive advantages identified in the planning history of the territory towards its impact and comparative advantages at the international, regional and national levels in which they take place; and c to define medium and long-term future scenarios, with a horizon of 50 years and the conditions that must be given to achieve them, based on the assessment of the variables that affect the scenarios political, macroeconomic, socio-cultural and environmental.
Following the Cartagena and Bolivar Regional Competitiveness Plan CBRC RCC, , which focuses on development based on attraction for the growth of tourism clusters, industry plastic and petrochemical , logistics for foreign trade, shipbuilding construction and repair design, agro-business, increase of science and technology transverse the development objectives for these clusters.
In , Cartagena will be the main logistics center of the country. Its tourist, naval, maritime and fluvial industry will be recognized worldwide for its high standards of quality and service, which will position it among the three most competitive cities in the Caribbean.
Bolivar will be one of the five most competitive departments in Colombia, the first in the Colombian Caribbean region, it will have a per capita income level equal - or higher than a high middle-income country. The region is characterized by a high level of human, economic and business environment that encourages productive investment of high added value and innovation, mainly through petrochemical-plastic and agro-industrial, business formalization and generation of employment, with an emphasis on the export of goods and services RCC, , p.
Although in terms of competitiveness the line of opportunities for regional development bets on limited economic and social growth, it is necessary to open the discussion and integrate it into binding horizons, tending to give a response to the areas of the departmental territory that do not count with clear opportunities today.
It requires more accurate definitions of their intrinsic vocations related to the long-term future. The inequality of the territory is reflected in communities separated by a long shaped region. Caribbean coast concentrates northbound development that contrasts with more poverty and violence affected people on the southbound. Bolivar south people are related more with neighboring regions than their own. The proposal includes complementary visions to put them in the same route towards , based on the challenges towards the future seen as potential for a balanced, sustainable and more equitable development of the territory.
The methodology was proposed under two initial conditions: a multiscale reality, and the setting of term values. The multiscale reality originates in three processes of approximation based on a series of endogenous or exogenous conditions to be evaluated: the first process of spatialization, through the identification of global, regional and local regional potential development scales of Bolivar; the second process of timing, through the prospection of the components according to their potentiality and the definition of the horizon based on equidistant time slices on which to prospect scenarios; and the third process, identifying the areas of development that the structure of the document are:.
The components a, b, c, d, e were related to the spatialization conditions to find their representativeness in the big scale of exogenous implications of the territory articulated with the Caribbean and Latin America Region, and the medium scale of the endogenous articulation from its Zones of Economic and Social Development ZODES.
Then, we will focus on the future scenarios in the immediate, short, medium, long, and very long term A, B, C, D, and E. See Graphs 1 and 2. Bolivar's geography has two dimensions: one dimension is related to the Caribbean region in all its magnitude.
It refers to the supra-regional positioning and its exogenous implications, and one dimension is related to the micro-regions and municipalities characterized by their endogenous implications. Bolivar department will define associative schemes and management with other territories, its financing and execution instruments within the Colombian legal framework such as public-private partnerships for local, departmental and regional development, articulating the relevant budgetary and financial projects and resources Bolivar, , p.
Likewise, it constitutes a commitment for local and departmental development Bolivar, , p. This is where an initiative of great vision is consistent with regional planning Bolivar, , p.
Bolivar territory plays a fundamental role that transcends the regional and local dimension on a world scale in the cultural - heritage context. See Figure 1. Colombia as a State Party to the World Heritage Convention acquired a worldwide position for its exceptional universal value, which commits to its preservation and sustainability in the framework of their respective management plans.
Even with this strong added value of being on the World Heritage List, it is only in recent years that there has been a growing interest in incorporating culture as a strategic element of the development of regions, nations, and concerns about their safeguard and protection. Recently, communities reaffirm the need to ensure the preservation of all the manifestations and sites that reflects their cultural heritage.
Nowadays, main challenge is social adaptation of Peace process, and the dispersion or the influence of uncontrolled impacts of tourism social, such as San Basilio de Palenque. Founded in June by Colombia, Chile, Mexico, and Peru, it is oriented towards free trade, emerging from a global geopolitical and macroeconomic situation. In terms of infrastructure integration, the Caribbean region is articulated in two axes: the east-west axis, between Panama-Venezuela, and the north-south axis, between Caribbean-Andean Region.
Despite this, Bolivar has an exceptional role, since everything that happens there in terms of land transportation, cargo shipping and tourism, energy infrastructure and fiber optics, has to pass transversally through its territory.
The most ambitious regional impact projects are included in the Conpes DNP, d. See Figure 2. Public and private actions in the Port of Cartagena recorded a growth of In addition, terminals of Cartagena are prepared with cranes and equipment compatible with the new vessels using the Panama Canal expansion, constructed with locks of 55 meters width that allow the transit of the ships of greater capacity, surpassing standard Panamax ships of 4, TEU 4.
The port of Cartagena is receiving international transshipment of cargo from the large postpanamax vessels of 12, TEU. According to future projections, a demand for 20 million additional containers is expected for the next 13 years.
The positioning of Cartagena corresponds to three facts: the first fact as a strategic stop of the Panama Canal for global transit, the second fact as the distribution node to the Caribbean and North America 5 , and the third fat as intermodality port through the interior of the Colombian territory.
See Figure 3. The interaction between Caribbean-Andean Region have manifested in north-south relations of convenience, developed and historically positioned according to commercial exchanges dependent on the Magdalena River and becoming as a route for conquer and colonization from the Spanish crown since s. It links most of Colombian cities system and originated the business vision for the Andean region according to the main following clusters of traditional economy: coffee, livestock, and leather, tourism, hydrocarbon, and sugar.
To understand this, economic competitiveness has been visualized through the detection of clusters 6 and the conformation of logistic corridors.
The Magdalena River constitutes the structural column of Colombia regions and determines the geographic and morphological territory of Bolivar. Also, it is a historical element on which the national and regional vision has gone from being a limiting and an example of the centralized backwardness of the national administration to a tendency to be viewed now as an opportunity for national and regional development.
Today the Magdalena is navigable only between Barrancabermeja and Barranquilla, with frequent interruptions during the year DNP, a , p. The river integration for logistics, tourism, water supply and heritage as productive cultural activities must be highlighted as a challenge of the water management and the conservation of biodiversity.
It is important to mention two main projects in the region: the Caribbean Integration Train, to improve integration north-south and west-east called Integrated Regional Transport System ; and the Sun Route highway Trunk of Magdalena. Sun Route highway is one of the priority corridors at the national level integration, to which are added other investments in process such as the double way between Cartagena and Barranquilla, as part of the Transversal of Caribe; and the double way between Barranquilla and Cienaga, as Trunk of Magdalena.
See Figures 4 and 5. According to the areas of analysis expressed in the methodology, the conclusions obtained for this first part are related to:. For this, the design of cultural industries for entrepreneurship, the design of sustainable tourism product appropriate by the communities must be strengthened.
The regional competitive capacity of Bolivar and the mobility of its exogenous and endogenous exchanges is equivalent to the transnational conditions manifested in the actions of the continental integration of the Caribbean Region, in which the department of Bolivar is strategically located. This does not end up adopting integration with the northern hemisphere with Panama - Central America and North America. It is a situation to be analyzed in depth, since time of the planning of integration projects have been disarticulated between two different universes in which the Caribbean Region is in the middle, still endowed with a high regional comparative advantage.
An example is the regional integration on the east-west axis. Panama-Bolivar-Venezuela is not traced as a consolidated axis, but rather it is about two isolated points of connection.
More neither led by conveniences of countries competitiveness like islands nor integrated neighbors. This type of integration generates a consolidation of regional inequalities, integrated with global dynamics, while its purpose is not the real integration of cultures. It has several challenges and achievements in a huge transition from intermodality to multimodality expressed as follows:.
The growth of the port of Cartagena as a port hub for the Caribbean region, with projected targets for 5 million TEU annually in ;. The project of the Caribbean Integration Train or Integrated Regional Transport System linked to the recovery of the navigability of the Magdalena River as a intermodality escalation rail, road, sea and river transport to multimodality. The development of the Magdalena River as a logistic corridor and the future construction of logistic platforms in adjacent cities like Bosconia Cesar , Cienaga Magdalena means that innovation and improvement of regional, competitive and logistic integration is driven by the logistic multimodality between ZAL supported by the fluvial infrastructure of the Magdalena River and the accessibility of national road system through Bolivar Sun Route, Caribbean State Route, and Las Americas motorway project.
See Figure 6. Conclusions about natural landscape focuses on The recognition of the unique conditions of the natural landscape subjected to the effects of climatic variability and identified in the environmental territorial vision for the integration in the Bioceanic Corridor according to the United Nations Environmental Program UNEP.
The environmental challenge of the Magdalena River navigability works project must be highlighted since recovering of the river will not only an economic matter. Based on an expectation of sustainability, the project is endowed with a component specifically aimed at incorporating into the benefits program of the Kyoto Protocol, for the acquisition and supply of carbon credits.
There is a regional challenge in Bolivar due to achieve the articulation of a system of cities at local and regional level subject to the requirements of intermodal and multimodal transport and communications networks, accelerated by the Logistic Corridor of the Magdalena River.
The integration of the cities system is based on management through various agents already proposed, such as the Strategic Agency for the Development of Corridors Subregional at Cartagena - Barranquilla - Santa Marta, and Logistic Corridor of the Magdalena River.
The Caribbean Region is on the verge of integration into its energy and communications infrastructures foreseen in energy planning and Information and Communication Technologies ITC in development, which despite its difficulties requires a strengthened territorial entity in its system of cities and prepared in their territorial vocations to address the challenges of local-regional competitiveness. By Ordinance of May 17, , approved by the Deputies Assembly of the Government of Bolivar, it was agreed to organize the territory accordingly with the extension and social and economic characteristics to plan economic and social development more equitably in six Zones of Economic and Social Development, ZODES as an added value of supra-municipal association, consolidating the administrative political structure of the territory.
This plan will be one of the main inputs for the creation of strategic corridors and Territorial Development Areas, as set out in the National Development Plan. The analysis of the regional-local scale of cultural integration means in an articulation of corregimientos and veredas 9 as subdivision of municipalities. In addition to the heritage sites recognized by UNESCO, it is observed the presence of an integrating concept constructed from the natural and cultural values.
It is understood as the transformation and adaptation that man makes over nature and constituted as an inclusive notion from which it is possible to integrate the patrimonial resources to a territory, making more and more evident the relation that must exist between the natural and cultural heritage.
The cultural heritage requires an articulation with the conditions of territorial order, to be a resource that promotes human development in the regions that bends the economic and cultural development of the people.
Since s social mobility by forced displacement induced by war conflict or by illegal mining , generated big population movements in Bolivar that have modified the processes of social appropriation of the territory. Some of the ZODES historically has been presented migratory mobility by conflict, post-conflict and it is place of reconciliation programs by National Government, to set attention of victims, the restitution of lands and to execute Plan of Life programs for the ethnic communities.
The mission of GIZ is to promote agreements and synergies between Civil Society and the State, which are translated into joint peace building initiatives, in thematic lines as Inclusion, Coexistence, and Regional Development Visions.
Its work has a cross-cutting emphasis on youth, the gender perspective, and alliances with the Private Sector. According to the methodology proposed, the scaling of the integration actions are visualized through layers, which overlapping allow to observing the articulation of current and potential regional-local process. The following layers are presented below. This layer identifies the system of cities supported by corridors, road networks and infrastructure: integration of a regional-local urban system organized by ZODES, which requires addressing the new challenges of maritime and inland waterway infrastructure, capacity of vehicular mobility, cargo transportation and tourism, as well as the modernization of communication and service support networks.
See Graph 3. The regional urban system is related to the layer of land uses and vocations consolidated in the Land Management Plans POT 12 , assigned to municipal entities from Law of However, there are two fundamental inputs that challenge a departmental integration in matters of territorial organization, municipalities association, and connectivity of the cities system that requires:. DNP c proposed a territorial planning model for the regions that articulates the POTs in terms of risk, environment, infrastructure and social-economics and municipal association;.
To review and adjust municipal land management plans POT second generation. Colombian municipalities have to update their territorial land management plans POT , an instrument defined as the set of objectives, guidelines, policies, strategies, goals, programs, actions and standards adopted to guide and manage the physical development of land use Following the integration of Bolivar's territory with multimodality as structuring layer increasing, boosting and investing in connectivity, it advances in a preliminary simulation World Bank, analyzed the competitiveness of three forms of transportation: roads, railways, and rivers.
Under the assumption that all cases had to improve accessing to fluvial terminals, railways proved to be more competitive than fluvial, and both routes were more competitive than overland transport.
DOCUMENTO CONPES 3547 PDF
The objective function was subject to the set of constraints represented in equations 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Several factors which must be considered in FLD have been documenro in the state of the art; however, not all of them are relevant in all contexts. Other significant contributions have been made by Domingo VenturaFarahani et al. Recuperado el 2 de diciembre de The Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health. The process was repeated in several successive rounds; the list of factors was rebuilt in each round until reaching final agreement Ziglio, Only quantitative factors were considered transportation costs, energy, labour were concerned in pioneering studies concerned with facility location theory, little attention being paid to qualitative factors Hormigo Ventura, ; documenti, due to the growth in global competition and the need for some companies to relocate, efforts during the last few decades have taken a broad set of factors into consideration whose relevance may vary depending on business size, economic sector and country. A preliminary selection of factors.
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