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His critics emphasize miscalculations in his predictions and accuse him of exercising a kind of futurology. If your forecasts are correct, we are not talking about a difficult period of transition towards a new model such as the Industrial Revolution, but rather the sudden and permanent displacement of a large segment of society.
Indeed, it is a paradigm shift. The model that was implemented after the systemic crisis evolved into social Darwinism, an arrangement based on the aggressiveness of capital over labor. This model was exhausted in the systemic crisis. The model that replaced it, which has been ours, sought to maximize profit through full employment and redistribution, consumption and credit. This model, as well as the mega debt, has run into this systemic crisis.
Any new model will look for the optimal use of resources through productivity, but at the expense of very high structural unemployment and the impoverishment of broad sections of society, which will disappear or be greatly thinned. The middle class, the precious and useful instrument invented by this model, will be gone.
But society resists such determinism. An exception tolerated so that people think that opposition and resistance can be accommodated within the system. Haarde, is more of the same. Because if you think dispassionately, what has been achieved? What has the Spanish Revolution accomplished? You have argued that the euro cannot collapse, but how can the EMU embrace Spain under the scenario that you describe? That also means losing sovereignty. However, some wonder, as did Martin Feldstein in , if tensions over economic policies and intrusions on national sovereignty will contain Germany or, conversely, invite it to exercise its hegemonic leadership….
Basically everything is a matter of GDP structure and productivity. Common currency areas tend to harmonize prices, but not productivity as it depends on things such as investment. Spain joined the euro with a pathetic productivity, but benefited from the fact that everyone was interested in believing that the quality of public debts of all members was the same. Spain grew driven by a bubble that benefited business people and quite a lot more, but when borrowing capacity was exhausted and the quality of bank assets came into question, well, goodbye to that.
No one can be a leader in Europe because no one is trouble-free and some are very troubled. What will Germany do when others stop buying from it? Nobody talks about this because there is no answer. This is a step towards the implementation of a global currency.
As for your views on the demise of the welfare state, and thinking about healthcare, why not take into account that, as it has happened with other technologies, advances in medicine will result in a highly effective health system, cheaper and more accessible, though less labor intensive?
Technological advances that reduce costs will be implemented, such as telemedicine, but preventive medicine has limitations: To reduce the risk of high cholesterol one should eat in a rational manner and avoid junk food, but this is expensive — particularly during times of economic hardship.
The austerity measures will translate into lower life expectancy, even with technological advances and preventive medicine. El Crash del Los libros del lince, What about those responsible for this crisis? I do not know about fair, but profitable… I think either nobody is at fault or we are all guilty.
Accountability, though, is a different thing. Had they intervened, however, there would have been no growth, and everyone wanted growth. There were also individuals, companies and local governments who took out loans they could not afford. What about the actual management of the crisis? Like the ECB taking dubious assets to lend to insolvent banks — which in turn buy sovereign bonds from countries with unsustainable debts.
And these banks are even distributing out dividends while there is no credit in the real economy. It is said that only banks are receiving funds from the ECB, but powerful companies that need funding are also in receivership.
As for the banks, they have made a blood pact: no bank will collapse. I think there will be a series of haircuts and debt restructuring measures, and these will certainly have an impact. That work was published in , during the hardest phase of the Great Depression.
Except in very specific sectors, I think the solution is not to further decrease the hours of labor, as it would rest productivity and scarce resources would be used inefficiently. Should they get subsidies in any way to survive? How would such a high level of structural unemployment affect the education system? And many, many moonlighters. Those who are highly competent will be seamlessly moving from project to project.
Continuing advances in communications and crowd sourcing will favor these processes. Yes, I think the implementation of a living allowance to cover the absolute minimum will be necessary, and that can take the form of food stamps, so from there people will have to take responsibility for themselves. The entry into the school system will be limited to the needs of production and for the best pupils.
What is your assessment of the policies so far undertaken by the Spanish government? I think this is science fiction. There will be cuts, taxes will go up, but Spain will grow even less and it will not comply with such a goal. Entidades Amigas. Este sitio web utiliza cookies para que usted tenga la mejor experiencia de usuario. Privacidad y Cookies. Necesarias Siempre activado.
Crash 3.0, El
«They have made a blood pact: no bank will collapse» – Niño-Becerra