Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research boils down his views on long term markets to 12 rules of secular stock market cycles. Secular cycles are driven by the inflation rate deflation, price stability, and higher inflation. Cyclical cycles are driven by market psychology, illiquidity, or other generally temporary condition s. If economic growth shifts upward or downward for the foreseeable future, the natural range moves upward or downward, respectively.
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Unexpected Returns: A Course of Insights is a complimentary online, on-demand video-based presentation series delivered by Ed Easterling that discusses key concepts from his book Unexpected Returns. He combines the teaching style from his experience as an Adjunct Professor with the edutainment style from his ongoing experience as an industry speaker. This presentation series includes six videos describing concepts of long-term stock market cycles, investment returns, market valuation, volatility, compounded returns, and investment approach.
Each video runs approximately 30 minutes. The first two videos address the basic principles that drive the variation in stock market returns over decade-long periods, the components of stock market returns, implications about the inflation rate, and the impact of volatility on compounded returns. The second two videos address details behind changes in market valuation resulting from financial and economic tradeoffs, changes in the inflation rate, and indicators of the current environment for long-term returns.
The third two videos address two of the popular investment approaches, relative returns and absolute returns, and the implications for investment strategy. Great information to assist in overall stock market and investing insights…easy to follow, speaks clearly and at a good pace. I hear them over and over again to keep my sanity in check. Job well done. The books are developed to explore the messages of the research published on this website, and both books include more than 50 full-color graphics as well as new material developed to highlight key issues.
Whereas Unexpected Returns introduced and explored the concepts behind secular stock market cycles extended periods of above-average and below-average returns , Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights delves into greater details and applies the concepts to assess the probable outcomes for stock market returns based upon a range of assumptions.
The books are written in a style that is directed to casual investors as well as sophisticated scholars. Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes are available internationally; ask your local bookseller or order online. Probable Outcomes continues the Crestmont Research tradition of extensive full-color charts and graphs that enable investors and advisors to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of the stock market. The unique combination of investment science and investment art explores the market from several perspectives and addresses the significant implications for a broad range of investors.
Beyond concepts, Ed Easterling delivers a dramatic analysis of the likely course for the stock market over the decade. Investors and advisors will benefit from this timely outlook and its message of reasonable expectations and value-added investing. This essential resource offers a compelling understanding of the key fundamental principles that drive the stock market. Derived from years of meticulous research, Probable Outcomes provides sensible conclusions that will guide your future investment choices and allow you to invest with confidence, whatever your financial strategy.
Probable Outcomes is a brilliant follow-on to Unexpected Returns and masterfully explains, in an understandable way, the most likely directions for the stock market over the next decade. This essential resource prepares investors to succeed in volatile and challenging times. You will profit from the many valuable insights that are much more effective than hope. Once again, as in his splendid earlier book, Unexpected Returns , Ed Easterling tells investors not what they would like to hear, but instead what they need to know.
In an investing world obsessed with short-termism, Ed reminds us that the long-term matters, and that investors can prosper — handsomely — by recognizing that valuation and long-term secular trends have an immense impact on our own long-term investment success.
Swimming against the current is for heroes and idiots, not for sensible mortals. In Probable Outcomes , Ed sets different courses depending on your view of inflation, the economy, and market valuations, helping you select the best investments for your course. For stock pickers wanting to understand the market environment, Probable Outcomes should never be far from reach. Your previous book, Unexpected Returns , probably influenced by investment process and thinking more than any other.
Thanks Ed for your putting the confusing into words that make the information understandable. Great job! I have spent time on your website but never reached the level of cohesive understanding that PO managed to convey to me. Our firm and clients will benefit greatly from the valuable insights pulled from your excellent research and brilliantly written book… Thanks for writing another superb book that will be re-read and referenced over and over again.
Your work is simply the best in the world. No other author I know of explains valuation is such a simple and meaningful way. The pride you take in your work clearly shows through. Outstanding guidance, in my opinion. These are the rare classics in todays investment worlds and great learning experiences. It was fantastic. I recently finished reading Probable Outcomes and it is even better! I read this book twice. Deflation Gets Its Due. Before you read any how-to investment books or seek financial advice, read Unexpected Returns , the essential resource for investors and investment professionals who want to understand how and why the financial markets are not the same now as they were in s and s.
Using comprehensive full-color charts and graphs, it offers an in-depth exploration of what has changed over the past five years — and what you can do about it to avoid disappointment with your investments. This unique combination of investment science and investment art will enable you to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of the current financial markets.
Based on years of meticulous research, Unexpected Returns provides the sensible conclusions that will drive your future investment choices and give you the confidence to rely on your investment outlook, whatever your financial strategy. He lays out a path for you to find your own Unexpected Returns , showing you how to confidently navigate the waters of market volatility. Serious investors will devour this book and profit.
It should be required reading for investment professionals. This is a book for the serious investor and student of the markets. Ed Easterling has penned a masterful accounting about why this is so wealth-destructive, presented without preconceived notion or bias. Far too few realize that these are subsumed within secular bull and bear markets, spanning decades not years.
Ed Easterling has done a fine job of describing how these long cycles work and how the investor can plan investment strategies accordingly. Then I highlighted the important parts. Then I underlined the most important parts.
I am still enjoying it and learning. Very well written and compelling research that all investors must understand. It is fascinating and fun reading!! Great material. Thanks for your insightful book. It is the best basic text on modern investment management I have encountered. Ken V. Free from fluff and filler and based on solid research, the book sets a new standard for texts of its kind. Another unexpected plus were the color charts and graphs that make it easy for the reader to grasp key concepts.
I learned a great deal that I did not know, and appreciated the style, which repeats the key things, so that you never lose sight of them. It is very informative and educational.
I realize now that it will take absolute investment strategies to be successful. And such a beautiful book, too. Well done! Your book is excellent. I am half way through it and will enjoy finishing it. I think everyone should at least read some books that challenge this idea, and this one is a very good place to start.
You have succeeded in putting basic economic and financial concepts together into a consistent, simple and completely rational framework. I have read over books on investing over the past 10 years and there are some truly excellent books out there.
I hope no other investors read it I like to have an edge. It is without a doubt the best book I have read on the stock market and I have read many of them!
How nice for me not to go searching for the meaning each time…I love your book. My day job, so to speak, is [a] city bus driver. Probably the best piece of financial material I have ever read. I have read your book and enjoyed it very much. In recent years your Financial Physics research has been very helpful to me. Which is fantastic. It keeps me grounded. I have to say, ever since I read your secular market book some years ago, and no matter how much research I do, I always fall back on your unbiased, fact-based analysis…thank you for providing your thoughts and insights.
It has been a game-changer for me. How I wish I would have read it in ! The entire content of Crestmont's website, including but not limited to charts, graphs, analyses, etc. All material available on this site may be used or referenced if the user references and acknowledges Crestmont Research and our website address i. Please send a copy of the published material to Info[at]CrestmontResearch. All property rights to Crestmont's research shall remain with Crestmont.
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Unexpected Returns has 16 books in a case box; Probable Outcomes has 24 books in a case box. The case boxes have never been opened and contain new books with dust jackets. Fine print: partial and mixed case boxes are not available.
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Unexpected Returns : Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
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Books & Videos
Unexpected Returns: A Course of Insights is a complimentary online, on-demand video-based presentation series delivered by Ed Easterling that discusses key concepts from his book Unexpected Returns. He combines the teaching style from his experience as an Adjunct Professor with the edutainment style from his ongoing experience as an industry speaker. This presentation series includes six videos describing concepts of long-term stock market cycles, investment returns, market valuation, volatility, compounded returns, and investment approach. Each video runs approximately 30 minutes. The first two videos address the basic principles that drive the variation in stock market returns over decade-long periods, the components of stock market returns, implications about the inflation rate, and the impact of volatility on compounded returns.
Book Review of Unexpected Returns by Ed Easterling
How I came across this book in the first place was when I was looking into the relationship between stock market returns and a number of other factors, such as interest rates, inflation, earnings, dividend yield, unemployment, GDP, home price index, etc. I pulled down the raw data from here , plugged them into Excel and looked at the various relationships. After some time, I saw that there is a consistent relationship between stock price levels and the inflation rate. The stock market does well in times of low, stable inflation, and does poorly in times of high inflation or deflation. There and then, I knew I found a treasure trove, plus a person that does interesting research. I finally got a copy of this and quickly digested it over 3 days.